Sunday, July 20, 2008

Candidacy or cult?

American politics seems to be, far more than in any time in living memory, falling into an era both silly and dangerous. The most recent sign was the Democratic primaries, a largely empty contest of identity politics where the most qualified candidates were eliminated early on. The ultimate result was Barack Obama's success in getting the Democratic presidential nomination, backed heavily by the wealthy, white, and ultraliberal wing of the party. But it's also hard to remember an election when the news media were so thought-free and ready to divert attention from political substance, while relentlessly promoting a candidate as the center of a celebrity cult. Obama is probably the most underqualified presidential candidate since the 1920s and maybe ever. His candidacy is a testimony to the continuing, if declining, influence of the media. More than anything, Obama is their candidate. One of the few good side effects is that what's left of the media's credibility is being hosed away before our eyes.

Obama's candidacy is also a fantasy of ultraliberal wealthy donors who like the fact that he's a blank slate. They're competing with each other to be the first to scribble it. They want to shape him the same way Bush was "turned" by the neocons after 9/11 -- another sign of a cult, hangers-on competing to manipulate the image of the figurehead. For his supporters, Obama is an exciting Rorschach inkblot. But he's not baggage-free. The notion that Obama is "post-partisan" or all about "change" is the phoniest thing about his candidacy. His political career in Chicago and voting record demonstrate this. Even more striking is Obama's combination of ignorance and arrogance.* While Obama went in six months from "not black enough" to "the black candidate," his politics has always been white-bicoastal-ultraliberal. The cult tendencies are most obvious and disturbing whenever the media's largely successful attempt to protect Obama from questions or criticism breaks down. The campaign reacts with anger: how outrageous, how racist. Isn't this a preview of an Obama administration, both authoritarian and empty, with a lackey press in tow?

There's only one reason to vote for Obama, and that's if you want a seriously underqualified candidate with all the baggage of the Democratic left: semi-isolationist parochialism, free-trade phobia, high taxes, high inflation, greedy interest group paralysis. All the other reasons being kicked around are bad ones. What we're electing in November 2008 is the president for the next four years, not the last four, or the four before that. (As for the Iraq war, it's essentially over.) The attraction of some conservatives and libertarians to Obama especially needs a cold shower of this sort. While a majority of Democratic votes and elected delegates did not go to him, there is also the attraction of the anti-Hillary voter to Obama: how else to explain otherwise rational women falling for him?

My experience with foreigners on this issue continues to be different from what I expected. For the most part, they can't understand why American voters would be attracted to someone so inexperienced, even more than Bush in 2000 or Carter in 1976. Obama's politics are a pre-1980 throwback, with the Democrats' post-60s isolationist-protectionist tendencies added. This isn't just idle talk. People keep tearing their hair out about the price of oil. Most of its recent increase is actually due to the decline of the dollar. That decline, in the last six months, is strongly influenced by a perception outside the US that Americans have entered another period of self-righteous navel-gazing and political weakness. It's true, although the causes are not widely understood outside the US. Without consciously thinking it, the words tumbled out of my mouth while explaining this to a foreign friend: certain voters are attracted to Obama because he's an underqualified blank slate.

Since the 1980s, the left wing of the Democratic party has wanted to tear down the two pillars (economic and security) of post-1945 American leadership under the guise of "progressive" politics. The Democrats were the party that built this system, but they've repudiated it. Keep that in mind when you hear the continuing chatter about American "unilateralism" and "restoring American's reputation." Obama's provinciality on these issues, to the extent he knows anything about them, is astounding. (Mostly, he sounds like the last adviser to brief him.) This is not your father's Democratic party, or even Bill Clinton's. Something has gone terribly wrong.

Hillary is the ambitious 18-year-old Tracy Flick, now forced to attend "Kumbaya" exercises with the 12-year-old set. But Hillary and her husband are no longer the issue: it's the voters who voted for her. The not-surprising upshot is a sight familiar over the last forty years, a large group of voters who would like to vote for a Democrat, but not for the party's candidate. A majority of Democratic primary voters failed to determine the nomination, and the non-Obama Democrats are growing firmer in their rejection. The party has a major problem on its hands. What's more amazing is the repudiation by the party's wealthy elite of what the Democrats once stood for as the main creators of the post-1945 international order. Instead, Democratic politicians and activists have ever more completely rejected free trade and foreign entanglements, being now beholden to narrow interest groups and devoted to non-stop pandering to the party's nutty fringe. It's no wonder the dollar is falling, foreigners are worried, and American voters are disoriented.
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* Like his insistence that Americans learn French before they go to Europe. Really -- Americans should be learning European. Not everyone in Europe speaks French :)

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Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Is the GOP kaput?

Yes and no.

Looking at it from just this year's election perspective, we can see two seemingly contradictory trends. One is in the presidential race, where McCain has a moderate but distinctive advantage, even against Hillary Clinton, the stronger of the two remaining Democratic contenders. The other is in the Congressional elections, where the Republicans are still in real trouble, as much trouble as they were in back in 2006.

The root of the trouble remains what is was then: no political party has so swiftly abandoned what it purported to represent after achieving such dominance. This development certainly alienated the conservative base, a trend already visible as far back as the 1998 elections. But the party's fecklessness with regard to spending and reorientation towards big guvmint has also alienated right-leaning independent voters and conservative Democrats. Even without being conservative purists, they find less and less reason to vote Republican. It's hard to find a comparable example of a party squandering its natural advantages so completely, so quickly.

It may be past time for what remains of the conservative movement to abandon the baggage of traditional conservatism. It once had a reason and a role. But it's becoming clearer every day that the rhetoric of traditional Anglo-American conservatism - appealing to traditional moral and political authority, patriotism, and religion, while opposing the growth of government - is incoherent, at least under modern conditions.

It leads to weird paradoxes, like the revival of respect for governmental and presidential authority under Reagan, who was opposed to the ambitions and pretensions of modern government; or the abuse of governmental authority by Bush, even while he still uses the rhetoric of conservatism. The ultimate upshot is that such a contradiction has to be solved and has been, by moving in a Nixonian direction - traditional authority, patriotism, and morality tied to massive growth of government. The parallel move of conservative and moderate Democrats to the Republican party means the party has a whole new constituency to serve and a new type of right-leaning populist politician. The most striking sign is the rise of Mike Huckabee, the Christian minister and nanny-statist, who came in second overall in the Republican primaries. Such a politician would have been unthinkable in the GOP even as recently as 15 years ago.

A new sort of coalition is needed, perhaps taking a page from "liberal" parties in other countries, using "liberal" for once in its real meaning: smaller government, market-oriented, and individualist - without the traditionalist, moralistic, and populist baggage. The pieces of such a coalition are at hand. But we don't yet have politicians to lead it. Voters thinking that Obama fits the bill are deluding themselves. He's the most left-leaning presidential candidate in American history, although he lacks much political definition. His politics are a throwback. Even Hillary Clinton, as left as she is, is not such an antique. From the present wreckage of the GOP, such a beginning can be made by liberal Republicans and center-right independents. But it will take a lot more to regroup and reassert the limited government message. (May 29)

POSTSCRIPT: Kimberley Strassel has made a similar argument over at the Wall Street Journal: McCain needs to run against Congress. It's not just that it's controlled right now by the Democrats and has the lowest poll ratings ever recorded. The Congressional Republicans need the wake-up call as well. McCain has contributed in his own way to the present debacle, above all with the ridiculous and unconstitutional McCain-Feingold political speech and finance restrictions.* But he does have significant credibility on spending and not falling into the braindead partisan lockstep that led to the Republican losses in 2006. (May 30)

POST-POSTSCRIPT: Jon Henke of the fascinating Web site, The Next Right, concludes about the Republicans in a way very similar to my distinction among liberal, conservative, and big-government-populist (miracles not math!) Republicans. He correctly points to the rise and fall of the third group, the marginalization of the second, and the surprise resurgence of the first. Henke's been guest-blogging over at Megan McArdle's joint. Maybe someone out there is paying attention to me, and I'm not just bloviating into the silence of cyberspace :) (June 1)
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* Ironically, McCain himself has opted out of public campaign financing, because of its onerous restrictions.

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Monday, June 02, 2008

The fading Obama cult

It's even getting into the conventional media, a couple months late. Here's Time magazine.

There's a key reason for the Obama-Carter similarities: everyone associated with Bill Clinton is working with Hillary, mostly. Everyone else in the Democratic world is working with Obama - and that necessarily includes the long string of Democratic failures stretching from Carter through the early 90s: Brzezinski, Mondale's 1984 campaign manager, etc., etc. None of these associations augurs well for Obama. Clinton's second term was the only clear Democratic success in a half century.

As for restoring America's standing in the world, Obama's is a case of American narcissism. Every foreigner I've talked with about this is very concerned about Obama, his lack of experience and knowledge, and the fact that when not prepared by aides and given the soft-focus treatment by reporters, he seems in over his head. They're strongly reminded of none other than George W. Bush in 2000 - except Obama is even less experienced. People with longer memories, as the Time article points out, are reminded of Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Probably most foreigners are most comfortable with Hillary Clinton, under the expectation that she would continue her husband's policies. That might or might not be a good assumption, but it's worth considering. Conditions now are different from and less forgiving than the late 90s.

Democrats are definitely experiencing buyers' remorse, and it's not even June yet. It will be interesting to see if, in the next few weeks, the media's generally soft-focus treatment of Obama ends, and they start treating him like any other politician. He'll sink like stone if they do. (May 28)

POSTSCRIPT: I drafted that posting last week, before the Puerto Rico primary. It's getting pretty hard to keep up the pretense of "Obama inevitability." OTOH, it's been clear since January that, if Hillary wanted this thing, she would have to fight for it. It wouldn't be a coronation by acclamation. She's earned some strange respect from critics, while at the same time provoking intense anti-Clintonism from liberals, who sound like Republicans from circa 1998. Whodda thunk it six months ago?

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Monday, May 19, 2008

Your Congress at work...

... with your hard-earned tax dollars: the revolting farm bill already passed in the House and now making its way through the Senate, appropriating $300 billion for, for example, those ridiculous ethanol subsidies - you remember those from yesterday, no? But it's also for outright corruption, like paying farm price supports to people who happen to own arable land, don't farm it, and live somewhere else. And remember the evils of corn syrup? This bill adds to domestic sugar subsidies: so watch your food prices go up.

Although Bush's motives are suspect - he failed to veto a single spending bill when the Republicans controlled Congress - he will apparently do the right thing and veto this monstrosity, even though many congressional Republicans are supporting it. It will probably pass with a veto-proof majority in the Senate, as it did in the House. Perhaps Congress can be shamed into not overriding Bush's veto, but don't count on it.

The DC Examiner excoriates the bill here, and the Washington Post casts its skeptical eye. And don't miss these charming little items.

It makes McCain's upcoming campaign easier, though. As we pointed out earlier this year, he merely needs to run against Congress. Oh yeah, McCain needs to vote against this thing too, and he did. Clinton and Obama did not.

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Monday, May 12, 2008

The New Deal reconsidered: The Holocaust crisis

Another important corrective to the hazy nostalgia in which the FDR years were later enveloped is a look at the reaction, or failure of reaction, of the US to the Holocaust. As David Wyman recounts in his essential book on the subject, the nature and scope of the genocide were known in the US by late 1942. For fear of appearing "pro-Jewish," the War and State Departments, respectively, refused and blocked any action to stop it. Until his death, FDR was indifferent to both the genocide itself and the refugees in flight from it. The State Department, under the influence of the British Foreign Office, was also hostile to Zionism and declined to press for Jewish refugees to be allowed into Palestine. The contrast with Churchill is striking. Once he knew of it, he spoke publicly about the genocide and devised schemes for getting weapons to resistance movements in continental Europe. His complaint about Anglo-Jewry was its timidity and lack of organization. In spite of his courageous and public statements and actions in connection with the Holocaust, there were sharp limits on how far he push the rest of the British government on the issue. But there was no question where he stood.

It wasn't supposed to turn out that way. FDR's presidency, and especially his landslide victory in 1936, cemented the love affair of American Jews with the Democratic party. There have been periods of erosion of that affair (Eisenhower in 1956, Nixon in 1972, and Reagan in 1984, all received close to half of the American Jewish vote), but never a real prospect of dissolution. Although anti-discrimination laws before the late 1950s were more limited in scope, applying only to government, the influence of the New Deal's public hiring practices, and later their application through much of the US economy during the war, essentially started the modern civil rights era. The 1930s was not only the most isolationist decade in US history, it was the most nativist, a period of strong intergroup tensions and bigotry. The Depression itself, of course, was the largest single cause. But the message emanating from Germany also exerted a distinct influence. American Jews looked to FDR as "King of the Jews," the "good czar" who would protect them. American Jewish leaders like Rabbi Stephen Wise and Sam Rosenman acted as American versions of "court Jews" familiar from Europe.

And it was "court Jew" politics that failed in the war years. This influential establishment of lay and rabbinical leaders, allied with FDR, were determined to maintain the palace-intrigue approach to Jewish issues. Far from being a help, they seriously harmed Jewish self-interest in those years: for all their backroom dealings, they came up empty on antisemitism, Zionism, or rescuing European Jews.

Eventually, a new, more American type of "bottom-up" politics emerged in response to the Holocaust. Its emergence was too late for most of Europe's Jews. But it led to a stunning breakthrough for America's. After the end of the war, it became clear that, for all his greatness as a leader, FDR and his "court Jews" were the ultimate obstacles to progress on these issues. While he repeatedly used popular anti-semitism as an excuse for inaction, the circumstances of the war itself rapidly changed American opinion, and FDR was left behind by change he himself had helped to instigate. Treasury Secretary Morgenthau's plan to rescue Jewish refugees was largely drawn up by non-Jews. Former president Herbert Hoover, who first made his name leading war relief efforts during and after the First World War, offered to head up a refugee commission. It did form but failed to accomplish much, because of State Department and White House resistance. Even the State Department itself, once the war was over, relented enough to negotiate a settlement of refugee property claims with the Swiss government.*

A critical mass of Jewish groups finally gave up on palace intrigue, organizing and protesting publicly in 1943 and 1944, making Zionism and the rescue of Europe's remaining Jews broadly accepted, nonpartisan issues. By the 1944 election, both parties endorsed this platform, and within a few years, rapid political change led to dramatic changes in American acceptance of Jews and the start of the sharp decline in antisemitism that marked the postwar decades. This decisive change occurred in a space of a few years. Contrast with the 1940 election, where in spite of the bipartisan support for intervention in the war, America First and important isolationist leaders like Lindbergh made discreet but effective use of social prejudice against Jews to bolster their case. The America we live in now was made in those few short years by people (some of them returning from the war) who abandoned the 1930s politics of fear. Given FDR's opposition to Zionism and his stubborn refusal to do anything about the genocide in Europe, it's almost a miracle.**
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* Contrary to mythology pushed by the media in the 1990s, Switzerland had instituted the secret, numbered bank account system in the 1930s so that people fleeing Germany could move their assets to a safe place. It was generally less antisemitic than the rest of Europe and, in spite of the fact that much of its population was German-speaking, never fell for Hitler's Aryan vision. But most of the owners of the financial assets moved to Swiss banks perished, and several billions (in present dollars) were left unclaimed at the end of the war.

** Kenneth Levin's The Oslo Syndrome retraces Wyman's history in abbreviated form, then relates it to the return of Jewish self-ghettoization in the 1990s. Except that in a liberal democracy, self-ghettoization means self-defeat. "Court Jew" politics and palace intrigue don't work. While Clinton, unlike FDR, was not personally prejudiced against Jews, the political failure was similar, the Oslo "peace process" being the most damaging result.

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Friday, May 09, 2008

Now it gets interesting

The coming fall of PCU, triggered by intolerable costs, is preceded by the final stages of rising prices and hemorrhaging subsidies. This bubble is now the subject of more and more active discussion in the blogosphere and the specialized higher ed press.*

Over at the Yeah Right blog, the mysterious Batman refers to this article on the student loan bubble, following the lead started by Instapundit:
... about "the next market bubble" being higher education, where government subsidies (obstensibly, to improve access to higher education) have had the unintended (but certainly foreseeable) consequence of inflating the costs of college: "Over the last 10 years, after adjusting for inflation, tuition is up 48% at public schools and 24% at private schools."

There are several important parallels with the recent housing bubble; policy goals of extending participation (in higher education, in home ownership) led to people with serious credit risks borrowing a lot to pay a lot for something that, it turns out, isn't worth what they paid....

This bubble, like all bubbles, will have its tragic stories, so I don't want to cheer this on. But if there's a silver lining, it's that it may make people rethink the value of those four years that polite society assumes you need.

Discussion ensues.

How much you wanna bet now on a federal plan in 2009 or 2010 to "save" higher education from a government-enabled burst bubble? And, of course, to keep pushing college education on students who don't need or want it? Just like pushing houses on people who don't need or can't afford them ....

POSTSCRIPT: Nice blog, BTW. Although Batman seems even more mysterious than we are :)

Additional thoughts about how the cultural elite skews education spending the wrong way, from Jerry Pournelle.

POST-POSTSCRIPT: Some bloggers caught Megan McArdle's hysterically funny take on HillaryPlan, but not all of us saw it:
What do Americans care most about this election season? The troubled housing market, and the short supply of oil. That's why Hillary is here with a plan. Specifically, a plan to discourage investment in the oil industry through a windfall profits tax, and to destroy the mortgage market by freezing foreclosures and interest rates. That way, no one has to worry about oil or houses, because there won't be any to worry about. That's just the kind of thoughtful, caring politician she is.
Plus Megan has some really cool economics charts that take me back to college days. I guess my public college education is worth something. And it means Megan is way cool.

And that is why my new life goal is to meet and marry Megan McArdle.
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* Your guides to the academic scene, Inside Higher Ed and the Chronicle of Higher Education.

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Thursday, May 01, 2008

Really, it isn't

ANOTHER POST-POST UPDATE: It was +0.6% annualized, not quarterly, but still positive. No 2007-08 recession in sight.
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PRE-POSTSCRIPT: If the rivers of "narrative trumps fact" bullshit of the news media could be summed up, it would look like this non-news article about the non-recession in the Washington Post: "Employers Cut Fewer Jobs Than Expected."

I just saw another yesterday: Hillary Clinton's strong rebound and Barack Obama's accelerating implosion (the real story) were twisted in headlines into something like, Republicans weaken against Democrats in November (the pseudo-story). The media's candidate (Obama) is fading fast, and the real result is, the Democrats have a somewhat better (but still uphill) chance against McCain in November.
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It wasn't a recession, whatever it was that happened this past winter. The economy grew by a little under a percent in the first quarter, at an annualized rate of somewhat more than two percent.* The housing sector did take a big hit, however, and it's not over yet. Housing prices will continue to fall.

But, as Ann Althouse puts it, why can't we reporters just "report" what we feel, dammit - plus move on with that Obama guy :)
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* If I'm interpreting the news story correctly.

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Saturday, April 12, 2008

The yahoos and snakehandlers strike back

Obama insults the Pennsylvania voters he needs!

Hmm ... this is the end of Obama as blank slate, it is. See here and here for more.

I do believe Mrs. Clinton has this primary in the bag. She did already, but this is more demonstration of how Obama is not really transcending anything. His politics is the usual white upper-middle class elitist liberalism. The fact that he's not "white" is beside the point.

Of course, maybe Obama has a point. I hunted a few times and certainly went fishing plenty of times, all as a kid. But now, as a grown-up, I have put away childish things and have my meat and fish grown for me, at the grocery store, like other civilized people.

(Hat tip to Instapundit.)

POSTSCRIPT: Someone's got Obama's number:
By cracky, it's like the man sees into my very soul!

Thirty years ago, I had a good job in the mill in Pittsburgh. I was bringing in a good income, going to jazz clubs, discussing Proust over white wine and brie, with my gay friends of all colors. I was all for free trade, so that we could sell the steel overseas, and I never bothered to go to church, let alone actually believe in God.

But then, the plant closed down, and I couldn't get another job. I went on unemployment, and found odd jobs here and there, but they barely paid the rent on the loft, and the payment on the Bimmer. I couldn't afford the wine and brie any more, and had to shift over to beer and brats.

Of course, as a result, I started hanging out with the wrong crowd - the beer drinkers.

And it wasn't just the beer. Some of them actually went out in the woods in the fall, and shot animals. And kilt 'em. With real guns!

I was shocked, of course ....

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Friday, April 11, 2008

When will the Obama cult end?

This spring? This summer? This November?

It's clear that Hillary Clinton is the better of the two Democratic candidates for the general election in November, and the primary voters seem to agree with this. She has won all but one of the big states (including her almost-certain victory in Pennsylvania coming up) and all of the swing states the Dems will need in November. Obama's entire primary vote lead came from his home district of Cook County, Illinois. If the Dems had more rational primary rules, like the Republicans, she would already be the nominee. The weird inability of Dem primary voters to make the full weight of their voice heard is what's allowing the media and the left wing of the party to "wag the dog," so to speak. This is likely to be the Democrats' final opportunity for the forseeable future to have a large impact on national politics, and they seem determined to blow it.

Obama has on his side an extraordinary alliance of the left wing of the Democratic party and the media, which seem determined to get him nominated. Let's go over this again: He's the most underqualified candidate to run for President in a long time. His political "movement" smacks more of a cult than anything else. Given his views, which are to the left of Clinton and which he tries hard to hide, he has a poor chance against McCain in November. Without the center and center-left vote Clinton has a better chance of getting, Obama stands no chance of winning the general election. The Democrats, in fact, would have to start thinking about how big the loss will be: not just the White House, but one or both houses of Congress as well. The defections will be fatal and leave the Party in a shape similar to what it was like after 1972 or 1984.

The complaints about Bush, his inexperience and provinciality, were well-founded seven or eight years ago. They hold with much more force for Obama. In spite of his talk of "restoring" America's reputation, he's a foreign-policy lightweight, at best - it's more about restoring some fantasy shared by, say, Ted Turner and George Soros. His obvious ignorance of foreign trade and the Middle East make his noises about these issues laughable. With leadership on trade and other international issues, Bush looks profound by comparison. Obama has in addition the heavy political baggage of the people he's chosen to associate with. All of these problems will become far worse in the general election, no matter how hard to media tries to distract people. That only works for so long.

Of course, the Democrats were always going to have a hard time this year: they're no longer running against Bush. Early on, they eliminated their most qualified candidates and, instead, gave us the spectacle of empty identity politics and exceptionally slick levels of political cynicism - more obviously from Clinton, less obviously but even more disturbingly from Obama - that leave any outside observer with a simple conclusion: the Democratic party is politically and morally bankrupt. Its putative base continues to shrink, and an Obama nomination will accelerate the shrinkage and defections to the point that the Dems may cease to be a viable national party at all. Once a forward-looking optimistic bunch, the Dems have become a strange collection of panicked, self-hating rubes.

The cult of Obama feeds on a number of things, including a surprising amount of misogyny. But more than anything, it is the desperation of liberals that makes them prone to bad choices. Democrats can look back on over fifty years and not see (with one exception) a successful Democratic presidency since Truman left office in 1953. The turning point was undoubtedly the awful day in November 1963 that started the liberal "unhingement." The JFK presidency left an ambiguous legacy; Johnson began with great success and ended as a failure. Carter was just a failure. Clinton's second term, after a failed first term, is the only bright spot for the Democrats in half a century - but it came at the price of Clinton's adopting some of the most conservative Democratic policies since - well - Grover Cleveland. This left liberals in the strange position of being ready to do anything to defend Clinton personally but hating his policies. The consequences were bad for the Dems. In 2000, Gore, instead of sensibly running on Clintonism but keeping Clinton at arm's length, ran a bizarre pseudo-populist campaign spooked by the fringe candidacies of Bradley and Nader to his left. The same logic was at work in the fringe Dean candidacy in 2003, heavily promoted by the media and the left wing of the party, and only ended when the primary voters had their say.

The Democrats need to think long and hard before they continue down the road with the Obama cult, drink the Kool-Aid, walk over the cliff - or whatever other cult metaphors you want to use. Cinnamon Stillwell has this to say: "He's not the Second Coming, you know" - but according to some, he is apparently the First :)

When will the Obama cult end? Maybe when Clinton wins in Pennsylvania ... nah. The cult will end when the media lose interest.

POSTSCRIPT: I missed this column by Robert Samuelson in February, but it's worth reading.

A detailed article on Obama's early career, including more disturbing material about the Reverend Wright (see page 8), from the New Republic.

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Sunday, March 30, 2008

William F. Buckley, Jr.: An appreciation

Where to start? A giant of the postwar world, one of the founders of modern conservatism, and a leading light who remade American politics, died just over a month ago. Many tributes have appeared, and his positive influence is everywhere you look.

When World War Two ended, American conservatism seemed to be finished. Although opposition to the increasingly statist bent of liberalism came from many and often conflicting points of view (individualism, religion, nativism, etc.), the two large forms of opposition were isolationism (opposition to American entry into the war - although that was not in any way purely a cause of the Right) and hostility to the dramatic expansion and pretensions of the federal government. Both oppositions appeared discredited, although disillusionment with the New Deal and federal intervention in general was widespread by the time of the 1940 election. And a significant part of the Republican party - its East Coast, Anglophile wing, led by Wendell Wilkie - did support intervention, in fact preventing foreign policy from becoming a major partisan issue in the 1940 and 1944 elections and marginalizing isolationism to a great degree. Nonetheless, while much of the New Deal had been repudiated after the 1938 midterm elections, everyone in 1940 knew what the great question was: to intervene or not, how fast and how deep. Of course, the Germans' undeclared submarine war of 1940-41 and the attack on Pearl Harbor at the end of 1941 rendered that debate moot. The US did intervene in World War Two, on the Allied side, and few regretted it afterwards, in spite of the immense cost and the dubiousness of having the Soviet Union as an ally.

Other factors were at work in the fragmented state of the American right in 1945. It had some of the same components familiar today. There were conservatives, people who deferred to tradition because it was tradition. The fact that the American political tradition was largely a liberal one (with one major exception) created something of a paradox.* That tradition was one of limited government, one overturned by the socialist-tinged "new" or "reform" liberalism of the Progressive and New Deal eras. (The change was large enough that it is questionable whether the adjective "liberal" should be used at all.) Classical liberals (later called libertarians) never bought into tradition-for-tradition's-sake and based their views on straightforward, historically informed ideas (abundantly confirmed by recent experience in the world wars and totalitarian dictatorships) about the negative effect on human liberty and prosperity by too-large and too-powerful a government. Some went further and re-developed the familiar 18th-century theories of natural rights and consensual government in terms understandable to a 20th century audience. To that they added a more modern and deeper appreciation of the limits of social knowledge and the impossibility of social planning.

A striking fact astute readers might notice is that I make no mention of the "religious right" in this potted history. That's because, after the liberal-fundamentalist battles of the late 19th and early 20s centuries, the fundamentalists retreated to their own, anti-political, subculture. To the extend that they were political, they largely voted Democratic, because they were largely southern or urban-ethnic Catholic - and in those days, virtually all white southern and Catholic voters voted Democratic. The "religious right" as we now know it, an alliance between conservative Catholics and conservative Protestants, was 30+ years in the future at the end of the war. In 1945, a few feeble attempts at ecumenism apart, the relation between Protestants and Catholics was one of mutual suspicion, laced with ignorance and prejudice - although the war itself had had a strong positive impact on this state of affairs. The full scope of this impact is in large part the complete transformation of religious and ethnic identity in America in the postwar era. This transformation made black civil rights easier to swallow (for whites), gave rise to a new level of interreligious understanding, and made Buckley's type of "big tent" conservatism possible. All of these were out of reach and almost unthinkable before 1945. In his relationship with American Jews, Buckley's approach was even more radical, given the level of anti-Jewish prejudice still prevalent in 1945. By the late 1950s, his nascent movement and its allies counted a significant number of Jewish thinkers, many of them refugees from Europe and carrying first-hand experience of life under the totalitarian dictatorships. Well before the Republican party, under Nixon, fully embraced support of Israel, Buckley adopted such support as a matter of course, because he understood the basic issues at stake. When the Soviet Jewry movement started in the mid-1960s, Buckley and his followers were among its early non-Jewish allies and supporters.

Buckley was a wealthy liberal Catholic, a man from a social background (including a father who was an American ambassador) that, on the surface, seemed conventionally WASP. It was his quirky Catholicism that initially made the difference. It made him have to think - really think - about political issues in a deeper way than most people have to, people who take their political views without much thought from their parents, teachers, and peers. This led him initially to oppose modern American liberalism from a traditionalist point of view, but also made him open to libertarian approaches. From these experiences, he formed a clear conception of how to rebuild the American right around a few simple and broadly appealing stands that any rational person could assent to, without regard to ethnic or religious background: opposition to the growth of government at home and opposition to the dominant form of collectivist tyranny abroad, communism. Buckley and his allies founded National Review, still the flagship of American conservatism, and began a campaign that stretched from the early 1950s to the late 70s to absorb all opposition to modern liberalism in this way. By doing this, Buckley sidestepped the leftover isolationist-interventionist debate and ended the American right's parochialism. By the late 1950s, all sorts of people, many Protestant, but a large minority of Catholics, and a surprising number of Jewish thinkers had been pulled into Buckley's movement, so much so that by the 1960s, the movement had become a broad political tendency in its own right and no longer a "movement." Buckley concentrated on the crucial common ground, dispensed with the provinciality and ethnocentrism of the prewar right, and even proved ecumenical enough to accept individualist and libertarian followers. (They often rejected him anyway, but that was their doing, not Buckley's.) Buckley even flirted with libertarianism himself, in his 1965 run for Mayor of New York and his famous, offshore 1960s pot parties on his yacht.

The era of Buckley's and conservatism's success was the late 70s and 1980s. In the 1960s, American liberals had obtained a blank check, under Kennedy and Johnson, and led themselves and the country, both domestically and internationally, into a gratuitous mess: instead of triumphing, liberalism went haywire and, after 1965, began a free-fall from which it has never recovered. The fact that the president who brought the Kennedy-Johnson tendencies to their logical conclusion - Richard Nixon - was a Republican seemed at first to set back the conservative cause. But Nixon was not a conservative. He was nominated in 1968 in part because he wasn't Goldwater and couldn't be tarred as a "crazy radical." The Watergate crisis (and the war that led to that crisis) were largely, and correctly, perceived as failures of the new, expensive, obtrusive, and frequently dysfunctional expanded government introduced by liberals. Nixon went along with it ("we are all Keynesians now," he famous said in 1972) and did big government a few times better - wage and price controls, entitlements and affirmative action as we now know them, and so on. His fall opened up a singular opportunity for conservatives, one taken by Reagan. The rest is history: a halt in the growth of domestic spending in the 1980s and 1990s, the successful and peaceful end of the Cold War, the end of "stagflation" and a generation-long success of low-inflation economic expansion and moderating the growth of the federal government. It was a stunning achievement, especially for a political movement - conservatism - that never gained majority acceptance. Buckley's approach saw to it that what we now call "identity politics" would not wreck his coalition and that, even when not having a strong influence over the Presidency, conservative ideas and policies shaped by those ideas would have their continued impact. Certainly, the rise of Clinton in 1992 was a direct response - "neoliberalism" - to the prior failure of liberalism and the success of conservatism. Clinton went on, chastened by the 1994 mid-term elections, to become the most conservative Democrat since - well, Grover Cleveland.

Buckley, like his movement, spent more recent years in ill-health. Certainly, the decline of conservatism after 1994 troubled him. Even more troubling was the return of "Nixonism," in the form of Bush Jr. and Karl Rove. This tendency started at the end of the 90s with a grand throwing-up-of-the-hands by conservatives, a giving-up on ever implementing a conservative program. Being the majority party in Congress put them into the position of actually having to decide whether to go ahead with serious reform, and they couldn't do it. (Many thought conservative reform politically impossible.) Another disturbing trend was the return of authoritarian, big-government populism, as signaled by Perot in 1992 and 1996, with its powerful tendency to split the right-leaning vote. (Indeed, Perot made Clinton's election and re-election possible.) To capture these voters for the Republican party meant dropping much, if not all, of conservatism as Buckley and others had defined it. The prize was permanently incorporating white southern and Catholic voters into the Republican coalition. The price: alienating everyone else - and proving multiple times over that big government fails for an inherent reason, not just when it's done by liberals. It also led, on an intellectual level, to nasty disputes between conservatives and libertarians on one side and neoconservatives on the other, those disaffected liberals who dropped out of the Democratic party in the 1970s and 80s. The opposition of many conservatives and libertarians to the Iraq war sharpened the nastiness.

Buckely's synthesis of traditionalism and "classical" liberalism (to use the L-word in its original and best sense) seemed unstable and incoherent to many. But it has proved enduring, like his very Catholic mix of faith and philosophical reason. It is both seriously intellectual, answering to that part of us that is consciously rational, and attractive because it recognizes the limits of individual reason. It combines with a classical liberal understanding of government a solid understanding of the limits of politics. Conservatives view society as more important than government, culture as more important than politics, and custom as more important than law. Buckley made his own contribution to culture as a prolific author and as host of public television's Firing Line for more than 30 years.**

He will be missed.
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* That exception was the semi-medieval views that had taken hold in the antebellum South regarding slavery, which then influenced the dominant American thinking about race from the end of Reconstruction, in the 1870s, until the 1950s.

** When Binah was a youngster, he was confused by Buckley's sometimes notoriously Latin-inflected discussions on Firing Line, reflecting Buckley's high-level Catholic education. Latin came later to Binah and, with it, some understanding of what Buckley was talking about. Buckley himself adopted a less erudite and more straightforward style in later years.

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Saturday, March 29, 2008

Normal women and the men who love them

From the Wall Street Journal comes this silly story about the alleged "backlash" against Hillary Clinton leading to an alleged "backlash" against women in general. (Hat tip to Instapundit.)

Unlike blacks and whites, who are still too separated from one another, men and women spend enough time together and understand each other well enough (sometimes too well) to make such worries seem pathetic. And listen to the absurd assumptions behind all such sloppy journalism: we need such candidacies to feel "empowered." What a joke: politicians almost always reduce our freedom - they rarely enhance it.

In our society, the position of women and the way men view them, and the way women view themselves, has little linkage to the vagaries of politics and the ups and downs of Hillary Clinton. It was always a mistake for her and her supporters to frame her candidacy this way. Fortunately, relations between the sexes are not much impacted by such things, and the influence that radical feminists once had, 20 or 30 years ago, on our thinking has mercifully faded to almost nil.

Too bad for the identity politics mongers - but nice for the rest of us.

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Friday, March 28, 2008

The coming Obama implosion

I probably shouldn't call it "coming" - it's already here, and it's not even April yet. For example, Christopher Hitchens takes another hard look at Obama and doesn't like what he sees. In case anyone's wondering if the Obama candidacy is finished or not, see this and this. There's always a certain amount of BS going on with figures at the fringes of any presidential campaign. But the core of this material is published and publicly available. The problem remains, not so much Obama, as the people around him. If the Clinton people are retreads from a moderately successful administration 10 years ago, Obama's people are failed retreads and would-bes from 20, 30, even 40 years ago.

There's not a lot more to say about the angry Pastor Wright. Long-time Obama-watchers were not surprised by the recent flap. Wright, a well-to-do pastor and child of upper-middle-class privilege, even more than Obama himself, is undoubtedly a cult leader captivating hearts and minds with myth-spinning, half-truths, and "hate speech." But take away the race mongering, and you have a successful cult guru not unlike, say, the Maharishi - and not at all like, say, Jim Jones, who took his beliefs far too seriously. After all, Jones committed suicide. Pastor Wright would never, ever do that to himself. Think instead of all those other angry cultists of the New Left and of how privilege has its price: the Chomskys, the Patty Hearsts, the Weather Underground, etc. - all those children of success acting out some weird personal drama and sometimes inflicting it on the rest of us. Mostly, such people need to heed their own advice and start with themselves.

But back to Obama: while not a full-blown cult follower, he is clearly a cult fellow-traveller of many years. The cult beliefs don't at all fit at all his own biography. But joining the cult was a shrewd political move - it allows him to keep one foot in angry identity politics, even if it's personally irrelevant to him, while still selling himself as "post-racial" to credulous white middle-class boobs. If anyone was paying attention, this whole dynamic was brilliantly captured and dissected last year by Shelby Steele.

Unfortunately, the Obama craze will not go away completely until the April 22 Pennsylvania primary. Clinton will almost certainly win it, by a large margin, leaving the Democrats with two candidates: one with a less-than-even but still serious shot at winning in November, and the other with even more limited appeal and his primary vote lead all coming from his home turf, Cook County, Illinois. The question then becomes, how crazy are those Dems? They specialize in self-destruction, and slavery/segregation/race has been their albatross for more than a century and a half: can they shake it?

POSTSCRIPT: For another slant on what's wrong with the Democrats, see here. Hint: it's more or less the same thing that's been wrong with them for a long time.

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Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Obama the cultist?

PRE-POSTSCRIPT: Obama has now made his speech (see here and here). Mickey Kaus parses and arrives at some conclusions.
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More disturbing news about Obama and how he's let other people define him. It just reinforces the point that he's not ready for prime time. There's no indication that Obama shares the inflammatory views of his pastor and the fringe causes associated with his church. But if so, a large question mark hangs over him and his future as a national political figure: why is he associated with such people?*

Is he black enough? Obama remains what he was a few months ago: a questionably "black" candidate - although he wasn't anointed as such until Oprah endorsed him and all the white middle-class liberals rushed out for a look - a political portrait one-quarter or one-third filled in, the rest question marks and blank spaces.

You can see further comment here and here. It's a reminder that much of what passes for "progressive" politics in the West today is a thinly veiled mishmash of hate, conspiracy theories, and juvenile rage. The last thing it represents is progress. It's not about this or that policy; changing those merely leads the hate-mongers to shift their target to something else. Pay attention to the music, not the lyrics. It's the detritus of yesteryear's alliance of the New Left, radical Christian churches, and the mythical "Third World."

Obama has spent most of his adult career with one foot in this fringe swamp of the self- and America-hating left. It is this issue - not the silly rumors about his being a Muslim - that should have been out in front for discussion all along. What's striking is Obama attempts to rationalize his pastor's screeds; these are the feeble excuses of a cult member trying to defend the cult guru.

Off to the races. How serious is Obama about these cult beliefs? Many people have simply assumed that he's fully into it. But there is another, more likely, possibility. Obama's biography looks like a younger Colin Powell: a man of mixed racial background whose life circumvented the main traumas of segregation and desegregation and is comfortable around both white and black culture. Someone in this position has some powerful advantages, but also lives a painful dilemma. One way to resolve it is to play the game, "Are You Black Enough?", and pay your "race dues." That seems to be the case with Obama and the angry Pastor Wright. There's probably an element of cynical calculation involved, but this aspect of Obama's biography also reflects a genuine personal dilemma. For more along these lines, see this by Matthew Yglesias and this by David Bernstein.**

For American liberals, this fiasco is another case of getting burned by their left-leaning political slumming. They get entranced by the slogans, then wake up the next day in a place they didn't expect. The saving grace this time is that they have plenty of forewarning. What's happening now is a striking case of post-facto rationalizing by the supposedly ultrasmart, but in reality very provincial, people with fancy degrees who've been caught - again - with poor judgment and self-deception. It's something they seem good at. It certainly makes all the portentous hairsplitting about, say, Romney and Mormonism, look asinine.

If Clinton wins Pennsylvania (which she probably will), she will have won all the swing states, and all but one (Illinois) of the large states. The Democrats would be crazy not to nominate her. Clinton has a better than even chance at the nomination, one that is growing every day. She is certainly the candidate in a better position to take on McCain. Obama's candidacy is about to enter a terminal tainspin, and by May or June, everyone will be wondering what the fuss was about.†

Paging Senator Obama. Meanwhile, whether Obama will turn out to be a flash in the pan or a national politician of real significance remains open. This election will not decide it. Both he and the voters need another election cycle or two. Certainly, 20+ years of national politics lies open to him. The result hinges on his self-definition, something he hasn't yet taken a stand on. If Obama resolves his dilemma the right way, he can escape the self-ghettoization of identity politics and become a serious national politician. If not, then not.
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* Mark Steyn asks the same question in a different way here. Curiously, Oprah left this church quite a while ago - which only makes the question sharper.

** If he experienced this dilemma, Colin Powell resolved it by becoming career military.

Probably the main motive for angry cults and cult leaders - like Pastor Wright and Louis Farrakhan - is just this dilemma faced by a formerly oppressed minority moving from ghetto to mainstream. The upside is obvious: the minority is no longer held down by legally restrictions and social prejudices and can participate in society like everyone else. The less-discussed downside is obvious from the emergence of the black underclass that started in the late 1950s and still lingers: it's the embarrassing problem of washing your dirty linen in public. American and Caribbean blacks have been from the start a semi-submerged distinctive subculture with only faint connections to Africa: they're far more New World than Old. The major step toward a more just society started when whites started acknowledging this fact. But when a semi-submerged subculture moves into the mainstream, everything is now on view, both strengths and warts.

A telling fact: angry identity politics cults emerge after the oppressed minority achieves some enhanced freedom and opportunity, not before. The origins of the Nation of Islam are not in the 19th-century South, but the mid-20th-century North - Detroit, to be exact, where founder Elijah Muhammad picked up, among other things, Henry Ford's nasty rantings about the Jews. Similarly, contrary to the fantasies peddled by Wright, he and Obama and his congregation are not poor and oppressed: quite the contrary, they're dizzy with freedom and opportunities even their parents could barely imagine. Living next door to the underclass neighborhoods of Chicago, ringing with drug pusher gunfire, makes clear every day that some of the newly freed are making poor use of their new freedom. Conspiracy theories are attractive to people in such situations - they appear to explain everything and distract everyone from harsh facts.

The case of American Jews demonstrates the point in a different way. Although there have been identity demagogues amongst us (Rabbi Kahane being the best-known), the success and acceptance American Jews have enjoyed in the last 60 years greatly limit their appeal.

† Keeping insufferable television journalists in our faces 24/7? Was that the point?

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Monday, March 03, 2008

Running on empty, part two

In contrast to previous years' campaigns, the early primaries and caucuses this year mean that we'll know very soon - in principle, at least! - who the candidates will be. What everyone will do between March and August is then anyone's guess. The Republican nominee is virtually certain now, so we'll take a look at the other side.

In spite of Hillary Clinton's early-on air of "inevitability," the Democratic discontent with seeing the Clintons return to the White House (especially given the fact that almost everyone around Clinton is a retread) proved potent. Obama has ridden his balloon upward on this discontent, to the point of seeing the nomination within reach. There's a lot of unhappiness all around at seeing American politics turn dynastic, with Bush, then Clinton, then Bush, then ... wait, stop! :)

The problem is that Obama, while he's played a smart game for several months, has been pushed too far, too fast. He's one of the most underqualified presidential candidates ever, and the air is starting to rush out of his balloon as everyone takes a closer look at his past and at his associates. After seven years of liberals and others complaining about Bush being too provincial and too much of a lightweight - complaints not without foundation - we have now the spectacle of the Democratic field being reduced early on to the two least qualified candidates, with both of them then turning to an ugly identity-politics brawl and interest-group panderfest.

Their recent exchange about leaving the NAFTA trade agreement drew swift responses from the Canadian and Mexican embassies. Embarrassingly, the Obama campaign reassured both that the rhetoric was strictly for the rubes, then publicly denied making such reassurances - leaving us to wonder just who the rubes are. Nothing like alienating allies, friends, and treaty partners! There's much stronger evidence that the Obama campaign routinely bends or breaks the truth routinely in many matters, not just this one. It's not because Obama is some evil conniver; it's because he's in way over his head. Even the shallow end of the pool isn't shallow enough for Obama, his campaign, and his followers. This is why many people are reminded, not only of George W., but of Carter and other "pure" candidates making vacuous promises of "change." Such candidates are largely a function of the hopes and ambitions that people around them project on to them - they lack, and have not had the time or circumstances to define, their own political identity.

So what about tomorrow? If Obama wins everything, he's the nominee. If Hillary wins one or more of the big states (which is likely), the convention will be brokered. At this point, the superdelegates' role will be pivotal regardless of what happens tomorrow. And that will result in an unavoidable uproar over how "democratic" the Democrats are. Neither candidate is really qualified to be president. Clinton is somewhat more viable, has run strong in the large swing states, and has a better shot at defeating McCain in November. Obama would have far less chance. If Hillary does get the nomination, she will end up fighting for it - it won't be the walk-in-the-park coronation she and her supporters were expecting.

And hopefully, this fiasco will leave the mainstream media's credibility more shredded than ever. They've obsessively peddled "narrative" (meaning credulous BS) over fact for months now, in order to get Obama the nomination. Want to see how and how much our addiction to the news media and television damages our politics? Just watch it - it's happening right in front of you.

POSTSCRIPT: Over at the Volokh Conspiracy, check out this interesting discussion on Obama and the Jewish vote. Early on, it became clear that, contrary to some nasty rumors floating around the Internet, Obama is not personally threatening to American Jews or Israel. American Jews do have legitimate larger concerns about Obama's wide-eyed inexperience and parochialism and especially some of the people around him - but so does everyone else. It's just that Jewish anxiety is different from all other anxieties and gets focused early. The evidence is that the American Jewish vote (which is about 2:1 Democratic) is largely going for Clinton.

And don't miss these thoughts from Michael Totten on Obama and the Middle East, particularly on why Obama alarms a lot of foreigners. My own experience with foreigners closely matches Totten's observations. One of Totten's guest bloggers is Lee Smith, who has this. It should be read by everyone who thinks that the American way of dealing with religion is the rest of the world's - it isn't.

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Wednesday, February 20, 2008

Uh-oh

Rand Simberg of Transterrestrial Musings has another case of "it must be global warming": a once-per-generation snowstorm in Greece. (See here as well.)

And keep up with the Democrats' coming electoral disaster at Rand's as well. Hillary is still hanging on with Ohio and Texas open. If she wins Texas, she still has a chance. If she loses both, she is finished.

And so are the Democrats in November. They will wake up by April at the latest in shock to discover what they've done to themselves and inquire after what exactly they were smoking. More on that in a bit.

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Friday, February 15, 2008

I am vast and right-wing, hear me roar

PRE-POSTSCRIPT: Megan McArdle does it again: finally, an explanation for our campaigns.
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The agony and the ... well, no ecstasy yet. Conservatives are in a funk about McCain winning the Republican primaries and the smooth walk he apparently has ahead of him to the Republican nomination. Conservatives deserve a Valentine. So here's a belated one.

How did he do it? Independents, my dear. They can vote in most primaries, and they've recently been the fastest-growing group in American politics. McCain plays well among them. Conservatives are in conniptions, and rightly so, about some of McCain's politics - his support for restrictions on campaign donations and speech (which are unconstitutional, shut out challengers, and have done serious damage to our politics), and above all, his questionable views on illegal immigration, which, for state and local governments, has become a major welfare-state crisis that national politicians, who set the policies or lack thereof, pay no price for.

McCain, like Romney and Giuliani, is a liberal Republican. (Romney spent a lot of time and money unconvincingly presenting himself as a conservative - which is too bad, because he would have done himself and everyone else a favor by just being himself.) Liberal Republicans are the smallest of the three factions of the Republican party (liberals, conservatives, and populists). But they are critical: they are the closest to the center of gravity of American politics, somewhat to the right of center. They do not share conservatives' fatal ambivalence about modern government, but they are also free of faith-driven big-government populism - you know, where miracles are more important than math.

Conservatives should not have been surprised by this. While waiting in vain for a viable conservative Presidential candidate this year, many conservatives are still mentally stuck in the 90s. Conservatism lives on as an ideology, as an intellectual movement, and as an attitude. But as a politics, it's been dead for almost a decade. Conservatives who thought there would be a conservative comeback this year were always deluded. Conservatism didn't die a natural death, of course. It was shunted aside, by the Republican party - it was in the way. The irony is that, the Republicans would be in far better shape now if they had stuck consistently to their earlier conservatism. Like Nixonism, the Bush-Rove-ism approach was too clever by half.

So conservatives are going through separation trauma. They once had enough confidence in themselves that, in the late 70s and the 80s, they were able to take over the Republican party. But the last 13 years have not been kind to them: the Republicans lost their ideological moorings. Conservatives overidentified with the party, which became less and less conservative while becoming more and more partisan. Now conservatives have to go back to where they were in the 1950s and 1960s: they need to disentangle themselves from the Republican party and revisit the basics. They can start by mending fences with libertarians. And they need to figure out what they have in common with the "good government" liberal Republicans. (Hint: nowadays, "good government" usually means "smaller government.") For electoral politics, they need to face what I wrote here last year:
Once Bush & Co. are gone, it will be springtime for Republicans, who are more likely than not to retake the Senate in 2008. But it will not be a new conservative era: the 20-year era of conservative ideological dominance, from the late 70s to the late 90s, will probably not return in our lifetimes. Everyone now loves big government ....

Will the liberal Republicans ride to the rescue? Maybe. Liberal Republicans like politics and don't suffer from the conservatives' fatal ambivalence about being in charge of modern government. And unlike Bush, they value competence above machine politics and loyalty. They also lack Bush's faith-based, blindfolded, trust-walk style, and are not tainted with [it]. Although liberal Republicans are the smallest faction of the Republican party, they sit the closest to the center of gravity of American politics - unlike the conservatives or the Bush fraternity house .... the future of the Republican party, if it belongs to anyone, belongs to them.
Conservatives need to grasp that the game this year is, not pick a viable conservative candidate, but pick an acceptable liberal Republican. Now the primary voters have done that for them and picked McCain. If conservatives don't like the result, they should have been stronger in the primaries for Romney or Giuliani. Instead they were twiddling around with Ron Paul or Fred Thompson.

Conservatives also need to rebuild at the state and Congressional level. They have always had a strong tendency towards ghettoizing their issues as "ideology." They need instead to do what conservatives before the mid-70s did, anticipate and understand what the big governmental crises are going to be, and then be ready when those crises appear. (Back then, they were out-of-control expectations, the post-1965 explosion of federal spending, stagflation, the dead-end of détente; today, they include the coming entitlements crisis, illegal immigration, the possible break-up of the Western alliance system, the rise of the "oil" axis). Conservatives need to disconnect completely from the conventional television media and encourage everyone else to do the same. The news media will do its utmost to obscure important issues and change the subject. Instead of arguing with them, everyone should be ignoring them. If voters do, then the politicians will eventually get it. Those who don't get it, will find themselves less and less relevant.

There is real upside for the Republicans: the cards are still stacked in their favor this year. Bush and Cheney are out of the picture. The negative referendum on them already happened, in 2006. As a proportion of voters, self-described liberals are still shrinking. The Congressional Democrats' poll ratings have been crawling on the bottom since they took over 13 months ago (teens or single-digits) and consistently well below Bush's. If the Republicans are smart, they'll run against Congress. The 2008 presidential race is the Republicans' to lose. The interesting question is whether they have a chance to regain one of the houses of Congress as well.

POSTSCRIPT: Speaking of which - is it all over for Hillary? Peggy Noonan considers. My answer is, obviously not. She's won most of the big states and will probably win Texas and Ohio. The Democratic race is far from over. And given the Democrats' weird superdelegate rules, we may end up with an old-fashioned brokered convention. Of course, it won't be totally old-fashioned: the back rooms will have women as well as men, and they'll be free of smoke.

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Sunday, January 27, 2008

See, Tracy really wanted it ...

There are those of us who, last decade, were deeply impressed by the parallels between the career of a real Democratic First Lady-turned-candidate and a certain fictional high-school class presidential candidate, Tracy Flick, in Tom Perrotta's novel Election. Flick was memorably played in the 1999 movie by Reese Witherspoon. High school class president, boss's wife ... what's next?

Now that an upstart has come to challenge the One Who Is Not To Be Challenged, the parallels deepen. SlateV reports in-depth.

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Sunday, January 20, 2008

Mistaken identity

Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are running neck-and-neck in the Democratic primaries, but to listen to the media, once you get beyond the horserace aspects of the Presidential elections this year, there's nothing more important than the fact that one candidate is "black" (although it's unclear what that means here) and the other a woman. Those mere facts are supposed to emblematic of something that no one can quite articulate.

There's both more and less here than meets the eye.

Identity politics has little rational basis, although the larger forces that drive identity politics are easy to pick out. While it's supposedly about identity expression, identity politics is really about identity weakness. People with real identities just take them for granted, and their politics is expression of their interests and principles - identity itself plays no direct role. Identity politics is for people who need politicians to mirror back to them something strictly talismanic or symbolic. It asks politicians to boost or create identity, which of course they can't. While identity politics doesn't require it, mixed with the late-welfare-state cult of victimhood, identity politics becomes a powerful expression of resentment. The welfare-regulatory state (including its media wing) encourages victimhood, so naturally we get more of it.

Until the 1960s, the most powerful form of identity politics in American life was the white supremacism of the post-Civil War South, expressed in practical form as the "Jim Crow" system. Unable to take it out on the Federal army or the Union at large, the defeated South took it out instead on the newly-freed and largely defenseless ex-slaves. (The early history of the Ku Klux Klan is testimony to this fundamental fact about the Jim Crow era.) Americans outside the South eventually acquiesced in this system, accepting the proposition that the South was "peculiar" and knew better, anyway - besides being ambivalent about race themselves. Resentment over defeat and despoilation by the North was the prime determinant of Southern politics until the end of World War Two. Even politicians who were conscious of the self-destructive nature of this system (like the young George Wallace) were unable to break with it. Only larger social change, after 1945, could undermine it. The triumph of the civil rights movement, climaxing with the 1964-65 civil rights and voting laws, also marked the end of the South's "different-ness" from the rest of the country. By this point, no one alive was left who remembered the Civil War or Reconstruction, and an end came to the days of Southern refusal to celebrate the Fourth of July (the same day as the fall of Vicksburg in 1863) or Thanksgiving (a New England holiday made national by Lincoln, also in 1863).

The most important contemporary identity politics in American life is the politics of race, although the appeal of race hustling has been fading for the last twenty years; even the mainstream media no longer jump when Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton say something. The most striking thing about Obama is that he's "post-racial." His life is a testimony to the declining importance of race in America in the last generation. OTOH, as a "black" politician, Obama seems to feel he has to play that big Race Politics Wurlitzer, because somehow, he's supposed to. Doesn't pushing those keys and buttons constantly remind everyone of the very thing we're supposed to be overcoming? The Race Politics Wurlitzer has a century-plus legacy, largely destructive, behind it. Wouldn't it be better if Obama just walked away from it? Doesn't he have any other tunes or instruments to play? Of course he does, but as the media inflate his importance beyond his slender national political career as a freshman Senator, playing old familiar tunes on a familiar instrument is tempting - sort of like comfort food.

Hillary Clinton's case is more straightforward. Her political career is built on the man to whom she is married. While she plausibly claims to have feminist beliefs, her career is no exemplar of feminism. The older custom of women occasionally getting into political power by family connections has produced a variety of women leaders - few truly bad ones, and a few (like Britain's two greatest monarchs, Elizabeth I and Victoria) who proved outstanding. Such achievements are real, but they are not feminist. OTOH, figures like Margaret Thatcher are feminist icons, perhaps in spite of themselves. They owe nothing to marriage or relatives.

There's nothing irrational about identity - it just is what it is. But identity politics is inherently irrational, and usually reactionary to boot, no matter how dressed up it is otherwise. It seduces us into a deadend of absurdities and paradoxes.

POSTSCRIPT: Having drafted this posting, I discovered that Christopher Hitchens had a short piece in Friday's Journal about just this topic. It's lucid and sensible, as Hitch typically is.

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Thursday, January 17, 2008

The passion of Saint Barack

PRE-POSTSCRIPT: Maybe this is all part of Obama's larger, secret plan ....
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Well - now people are fully remembering what it was, exactly, they didn't like about the Clintons and their peculiar family values. Y'all remember, no?

Barack Obama currently stands between Hillary Clinton and something she badly wants. The Clinton Manipulation-Sleaze Machine, safely tucked away in a suburban garage somewhere in Westchester County for the past six or seven years, has been wheeled out, fueled up, and given a good tryout. Its first major victim this time is not the Vast Right-Wing Conspiracy, but a fellow Democrat.

I wouldn't vote for Obama - when his politics are defined, he's too liberal; more often, his politics are suspiciously fuzzy and free-floating. But he's smart, eloquent, and an important turning point in American race relations - he's our first important "post-racial" politician.* As he keeps getting hit with undeserving crap flung his way by that nefarious Machine, it's hard not to feel for the guy.
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* Curiously, Obama himself seems to be not fully aware of himself in this light. There's a significant gap between what he believes and what he is.

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Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Running on empty

PRE-POSTSCRIPT: Another thought about Ron Paul, this time from former Reason editor Virginia Postrel. Those of us over a certain age know about the "paleocons"; under a certain age, and you don't know about them. It's not your fault. And if you are a cosmopolitan, you needn't be rootless - another political joke from us old fogeys - guess you had to be there :-0

Postrel rarely comments on politics these days, at least directly; when she does, pay attention.
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Does Iowa mean anything? And what's up with New Hampshire? The ugh of politics returns.

It was nice to see the party establishments get it in the eye, with the rejection of Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani - they deserve it. But what did Iowa caucusers pick and what does it mean? Overall, Huckabee and Obama are bad omens.

The parties have far less influence over voters' choices now than they once did. The media filled the void for more than a generation, but increasingly, no one fills that role - more and more people are tuning the media out (not a bad thing in many ways). So what we're getting is the bulk of voters less informed than ever, leavened with a small group of politics junkies. After seven years of complaints about Bush's inexperience and being domineered by an older and more experienced Vice President, we're getting the youngest and least experienced candidates. Whatever their rhetoric, they reflect a deep ignorance and indifference to serious political issues (especially foreign affairs) that have been growing since the end of the Cold War.

Another striking fact is the apparently complete changeover of the Republicans into a big-government party. In spite of his and the Congressional Republicans' love affair with growing government, even Bush didn't have what it takes to pull this off, and he's spent the last two years backtracking on the federal budget and foreign trade. But Bush and Rove made Huckabee possible. Make no mistake: that's his real significance, not the 20% or so of Republican voters who are evangelicals. Although Fred Thompson and Ron Paul still appeal to a strong remnant of small-government conservatives, that faction seems to make up no more than about 25%, a striking change from a generation ago. That's the impact of all those ex-Democrats now fully rebaptized as Republicans. The party transformed them; but they also transformed the party.

This development also explains another important fact. Although we live in a center-right country, and self-described liberals are shrinking as a proportion of voters, Republicans have been unable to translate these trends into a stable partisan majority. They reached their peak in 2002. The real winner of the last 15 years of political evolution has been "None of the Above." Voters who 10 or 20 years ago seemed to be headed toward becoming Republicans are now filling the ranks of independents, the only political grouping still growing in the United States. They make up almost 40% of voters and more than half in some states (including liberal strongholds like Massachusetts and California).

It is this development that has deprived the Democrats of the chance of becoming a majority party again, while at the same time preventing the Republicans from taking their place. Now that the Republican party is, in many ways, a party of conservative and populist Democrats ("compassionate conservatives," "neoconservatives," populist evangelicals, etc.), the right-leaning independent vote seems to be lost to them for good. That gives the Republicans a solid plurality (well over a third of voters), but not a majority. In a winner-take-all system such as ours, that creates a permanent problem: Republicans barely winning and barely able to govern; then conservative and independents abandoning the Republicans, the Democrats winning by default as a plurality but definitely unable to govern.

What do we have on the Democratic side? Candidates with little experience, struggling to increase the breadth of their appeal, with little depth. Obama right now acts more as a Rohrschach test than anything else, something he's clearly determined to maintain for as a long as he can. While he's cleverly fallen back on the Kennedyesque idealistic rhetoric of the pre-1965 era, what political beliefs he has are all post-1965. Meanwhile, there is a blatant contradiction between what Obama believes (racism is rampant, fight the Man) and what he is (a successful black politician for whom race is not that significant). Obama's friend Deval Patrick, governor of Massachusetts, suffers from the same problem, disappointing everyone by turning out to be an empty suit.

It might be better if we abandoned the two-party system as an obsolete relic at this point and had candidates just run as free agents. It seems crazy, but with both parties now permanent minorities, maybe it's not so crazy. Neither party can muster solid majorities. Instead we end up with Republicans struggling and never quite reaching majority, and Democrats elected as a minority by default when the Republicans can't put together a majority. The last two Democratic presidents were minority presidents.

Finally, it will be a wonder if the US emerges from this campaign as a serious country: winners barely out of their diapers, populism, tearing up trade agreements (how about some more unilateralism?), and semi-isolationism seem to be the order of the day.* The populism monster is the main practical thing that has undercut Republican efforts to put together a majority. The Republicans were damaged this trend once before, in the early 90s, with the rise of Perot. Do we really want to keep punishing our most experienced leaders, while falling for callow candidates who are quickly in over their heads? It's true that Obama is less experienced and has accomplished little, less than Hillary (after all, he's never been First Lady). But there's not a lot more to be said about Hillary.

Herewith, predictions. I don't know who's going to win in New Hampshire. If Romney doesn't, or at least tie, he's finished, which is too bad. If Thompson or McCain don't place first or second somewhere by March, they will drop out, which is also too bad, since they're decent candidates. The Democratic race is topsy-turvy, but Edwards might come in second. I can't see his candidacy going much further though; he'll probably drop out before the end of February. It will be Clinton and Obama. I doubt if Obama will win more than a few states, and he can't win the general election. But if Clinton doesn't win in New Hampshire, she will emerge as a seriously wounded candidate and in no shape to win in November.

All in all, the general election is shaping up as expected: definite advantage to the Republicans. But the wild card remains: who will their candidate be?

POSTSCRIPT: Ron, we hardly knew ye. And what's up with that Ron Paul guy? Is he a racist or not? Who knows? We can't read his mind. All we can do is look at his history.

Although Paul has tried to present himself as a libertarian or small-government conservative, anyone who knows anything about him knows that he's part of the self-labelled "paleoconservatives," whose best-known representative is Pat Buchanan. (The only Goldwater-Reagan style candidate running this time is Fred Thompson.) Over the years, Paul has been associated with some offensive ideas and causes. Whether he believes in them now is anyone's guess. Maybe running for president means that he's left behind the strange and parochial paleocon subculture. Just keep in mind that these are the people who were ejected from the modern conservative movement back in the 1950s, mainly by William F. Buckley, Jr., and his National Review: they include the gold standard obsessives, the anti-Zionists, the conspiracy kooks, etc. The Democrats, last time, had their own version of such crazies ("netroots") adding unwelcome baggage to one of the candidates (Dean). This time, "nutroots" has been marginalized, thankfully.

By the way, you can read what some real libertarians (David Boaz and Michael Tanner of the Cato Institute) think of Huckabee's Christian-tinged nanny-statism and (more ambivalently) about Ron Paul as a protest candidate - which has been his main role this election cycle.
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* While we're wallowing in this silliness, some pretty serious things are going on in the rest of the world - in Pakistan, Kenya, and the Persian Gulf, for example - while no one in the campaign (Thompson excepted) is talking about the entitlements crisis now only a few years away.

It's hard to escape the impression that American politics has become a frivolous exercise in self-indulgence, an indoor sport for couch potatoes, with little connection to reality. It does make good television, which, I suppose, is the point.

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